Meituan Q1 earnings beat expectations, clear path to profitability normalization
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Meituan Q1 earnings beat expectations, clear path to profitability normalization
UBS notes Meituan's 2026 Q1 adjusted operating loss narrowed to RMB 4.1 billion, significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to improved unit economics in quick commerce; expects full-year profitability recovery to accelerate.
- 1Q26 revenue grew 6% YoY, adjusted operating loss RMB 4.1 billion, much better than market expectation of RMB 7 billion loss
- Food delivery orders grew 8% YoY, average order value rebounded, expected to approach break-even in 2Q
- In-store business GTV grew 12%, profit rate stable at 25%
- New business (including Keeta) loss narrowed, expanding slightly in 2Q due to new market expansion
- Maintain Buy rating, target price HK$128, based on SOTP valuation method
- Expected 2028 net profit attributable to shareholders to reach RMB 42 billion, corresponding to 10x P/E
Report interpretation
Overview
UBS published a Q1 2026 earnings review report on Meituan, believing the company's performance was strong with adjusted operating loss significantly better than market expectations, marking the company's steady move towards profitability normalization amidst post-price war adjustments. The report maintains a 'Buy' rating and HK$128 target price, emphasizing its strong execution and long-term valuation attractiveness.
Core views
Meituan's overall revenue grew 6% YoY in Q1 2026, in line with expectations, but the adjusted operating loss was only RMB 4.1 billion, far better than the market consensus expectation of RMB 7 billion loss, mainly due to improved unit economics (UE) in quick commerce. By business segment: 1) Food delivery orders grew 8% YoY. Although revenue decreased 7% (mainly due to reduced subsidies), average order value has clearly rebounded since March, reflecting strong user stickiness and low sensitivity to subsidies. Management expects profitability in April-May, with a slight decline in June due to 618 promotions. UBS expects this segment to approach break-even in 2Q, raising the 2026 unit economics loss forecast to RMB 0.3 per order (originally expected higher). 2) In-store, hotel and travel business performed steadily with GTV growing 12%, revenue up 8%, and operating profit margin stable at 25%. UBS believes Meituan and Douyin have differentiated competition in categories, with both focusing on profitability rather than market share. 3) Core local commerce (CLC) as a whole is expected to achieve RMB 3.2 billion operating profit in 2Q (from RMB 2 billion loss in 1Q), including about RMB 800 million in brand advertising and membership benefits to maintain core user loyalty. 4) New business (including overseas Keeta and Xiaoxiang Supermarket) narrowed operating loss to RMB 2.1 billion in 1Q, expected to slightly increase to RMB 2.4 billion in 2Q due to initial losses in new markets. Looking ahead, UBS believes profitability normalization will be 'front-loaded with high growth in early periods', with the fastest recovery in 2Q/3Q before stabilizing. By 2028, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 42 billion, with quick commerce contributing RMB 27 billion (90 million orders per day, UE of RMB 0.8 per order), in-store business contributing RMB 22 billion (27% profit margin), and new business incurring RMB 7 billion loss. By 2029, net profit could further recover to RMB 50 billion.
Analysis framework
UBS employs a bottom-up sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for Meituan. Analysts first break down the company's three core business segments - food delivery, in-store hotel & travel, and new businesses (including quick commerce and overseas operations) - and conduct detailed modeling and forecasting for revenue, costs, profit margins, and unit economics. Based on this, combined with qualitative factors such as competitive landscape, regulatory environment, and macro consumption trends, they comprehensively assess each segment's long-term profit potential. Finally, they aggregate the valuations of each segment and subtract net cash to arrive at the company's overall target price. The report emphasizes tracking unit economics (UE) and operating profit margins (OPM) as key indicators of business health and competitive dynamics.
Methodology notes
SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) segmented valuation
Breaking down a diversified company into independent business segments, valuing each segment using appropriate methods (such as P/E, EV/EBITDA, etc.), and aggregating to get the company's total value. In this report, UBS arrives at the target price by respectively forecasting the long-term profitability of Meituan's food delivery, in-store hotel & travel, and new business segments and summing their valuations.
Volume-price decomposition analysis
Decomposing revenue growth into 'volume' (such as orders, GTV) and 'price' (such as average order value, monetization rate) dimensions for analysis. In the report, analysts observe that food delivery orders grew 8% while revenue decreased 7%, inferring changes in average order value or monetization rate, and explaining this phenomenon with subsidy policy adjustments.
Impact of competition and regulation on supply side
In the platform economy, regulatory policies can significantly affect the behavior and cost structure of supply side (such as delivery riders, merchants), thereby changing the competitive landscape. The report notes that under regulatory pressure, competitors have reduced subsidies, shifting the industry from 'price wars' to pursuing return on investment (ROI), creating favorable conditions for Meituan to improve unit economics.
Key data
- 1Q26 Adjusted Operating LossRMB 4.1 billionMuch better than market consensus expectation of RMB 7 billion loss
- Food Delivery Orders YoY+8%Growth rate slowed compared to previous quarters
- In-store Business OPM25%Stable qoq
- 2028E Net Profit Attributable to ShareholdersRMB 42 billionComposed of quick commerce, in-store business, and new business
- Current Stock Price / Target Price78.25 / 128.00 HKDImplies 63.6% upside potential
Impact & implications
UBS believes Meituan's current profit recovery is sustainable, with its 10x 2028 expected P/E valuation having a premium over peers' 8x level, but considering its strong execution record and clear profit path, the valuation remains attractive for long-term investors. In the short term, market sentiment may remain constrained by the overall internet sector's slump, but as the company continues to deliver profit improvements, valuation is expected to recover.
Risks
- Alibaba may increase investment in Ele.me and Koubei to compete for O2O market share, even with lower efficiency
- Meituan's continued heavy investment in new businesses may put greater pressure on already thin margins
- Macroeconomic weakness leading to reduced consumer spending, affecting overall growth
- Unfavorable changes in government regulatory policies
- Reduced subsidies from merchants