Ferrari: Full-Year Earnings More Balanced, Order Book Strong with No Unusual Cancels

Overview

UBS issued meeting minutes following a call with Ferrari's CEO and CFO. The company outperformed expectations in Q1 (OSG +6% vs consensus +4%), but management emphasized that full-year earnings will be more balanced rather than front-loaded. The order book has been extended to the end of 2027 without any abnormal cancellations; impacts from Middle East conflicts and potential U.S. tariff risks are considered manageable. An annual FX drag of approximately €200 million is anticipated. UBS maintains its Buy rating and $483 target price.

Core views

Demand: A strong and expanding order book reflects resilient demand. Management disclosed orders have been pushed out to the end of 2027 for some models which are already sold out, with others still growing and there were no observations of abnormally high cancellations. Supply & Earnings Timing: Earnings timing is becoming more balanced. After adjusting for country and product mix, the company expects a more uniform distribution of profits across both halves of 2026, moving away from the historical 'front-weighted' pattern. Cost & External Risks: Currently, there is no sign of inflationary pressure on costs. Ferrari reports no indication of increased supplier costs and has applied strategies learned from last year to hedge against potential tariffs; an annual FX negative impact of about €200 million is forecasted. New Product Timeline: Pre-orders for the Ferrari Luce model have not yet opened; they will commence after the complete vehicle launch this month.

Analysis framework

UBS assesses the manageability of full-year earnings pacing and external risks by directly engaging with management, considering order visibility, regional revenue structures, and cost pass-through mechanisms, maintaining its relative EV/EBITDA-based valuation approach.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodEV/EBITDA valuation

  Relative EV/EBITDA Multiple Approach

  UBS compares Ferrari’s EV/EBITDA multiples to those of luxury sector peers like Hermès and LVMH, making adjustments for lease accounting effects to derive the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Ferrari NV (RACE.US)

  Focus of Meeting Minutes, Maintain Buy Recommendation

  Strengths

  Robust Order Book, Premium Branding, Improved Profit Timing

  Weaknesses

  FX Negative Impact ~€200M, Potential Tariff and Supply Chain Disruptions

  Comparison

  Valuation Compared to Luxury Sector Peers, EV/EBITDA Still Reasonable

  Risks

  Global High-End Consumption Slowdown, Declining Brand Strength, Insufficient Electrification Transition

Key data

• 2026 FX Drag~€200 millionAnnual Forecast
• Current Market Cap$60.4 billionAs of Report Publication Date
• 2026e EV/EBITDA17.4xUBS Forecast
• 2027e EV/EBITDA15.9xUBS Forecast
• Target Price Implied Upside42.5%Based on Current Share Price

Impact & implications

UBS believes Ferrari has successfully smoothed its annual earnings profile by adjusting region and product mix, reducing exposure to single-quarter volatility risks; a long order book coupled with no abnormal cancellations demonstrates brand resilience; manageable costs and tariff risks, along with quantified FX impacts, support the continued attractiveness of the stock. Maintaining a Buy rating and $483 target price, corresponding to 17.4x 2026e EV/EBITDA, remains favorable given the context.

Risks

• Risk of Global High-End Consumption Slowdown
• Brand Power Risk Due to F1 Performance or Innovation Downturn
• Electrification Transition and Regulatory Changes Risk
• Material Price Volatility and Supply Chain Interruptions

What to watch

• Order Opening Status for Ferrari Luce Model Post Full Launch
• Actual Impact of FX and Tariffs in Second Half of Year