Singapore's April core inflation came in below expectations, with price pressures still relatively mild

Overview

This report focuses on Singapore's April 2026 CPI data. Headline CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year, unchanged from March, but fell 0.3% month-on-month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, reversing the 0.5% month-on-month increase in March. Core CPI eased to 1.4% year-on-year from 1.7% in March, significantly below market expectations, indicating that underlying price pressures remain weak.

Core views

The core view is that the downside surprise in Singapore's April core inflation was not driven by a single factor, but by a combination of base effects and weakness in several components. Goldman Sachs estimates that base effects lowered the year-on-year reading by about 45bp; meanwhile, housing and utility price increases were below seasonal norms, public transport service price increases were relatively mild, and prices in the information and communications category weakened notably due to lower internet broadband service prices.

Analysis framework

The report uses a rapid macro data commentary approach, comparing the year-on-year and month-on-month performance of headline CPI and core CPI with Goldman Sachs estimates, Bloomberg consensus expectations, and prior readings, and further explains why core CPI came in below expectations through inflation subcomponents, base effects, and the lag in pass-through to regulated electricity tariffs.

Methodology notes

• Macro data trackingCPI year-on-year and month-on-month breakdown

  Inflation momentum and expectation gap

  By comparing year-on-year and month-on-month readings with institutional estimates, market consensus expectations, and prior values, the analysis assesses whether inflation came in above or below expectations and identifies changes in overall price momentum.

• Macro attribution analysisBase effect analysis

  Year-on-year readings affected by historical base

  Goldman Sachs estimates that base effects subtracted about 45bp from April core CPI year-on-year, making it an important reason why core inflation came in below expectations.

• Component price analysisInflation basket component breakdown

  Drag from housing and utilities, public transport, and information and communication prices

  The report attributes the core CPI undershoot to weaker price performance in several categories, including housing and utility price increases below seasonal norms, mild increases in public transport service prices, and lower information and communication prices driven by declines in internet broadband service prices.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Singapore macro inflation

  Core research focus

  Strengths

  Headline CPI remained stable year-on-year, while core CPI declined year-on-year, indicating relatively mild near-term inflation pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Part of the core CPI undershoot was driven by base effects and drag from individual components, so its persistence remains to be seen.

  Comparison

  Both headline CPI and core CPI came in below Goldman Sachs estimates and the Bloomberg consensus forecast.

  Risks

  Lagged pass-through from energy prices to regulated electricity tariffs could lift some price pressure in the third quarter.

• Housing and utility prices

  Drag on core CPI component

  Strengths

  April price increases were below seasonal norms, helping to suppress core inflation.

  Weaknesses

  The regulated electricity tariff mechanism means changes in global energy prices may be reflected with a lag.

  Comparison

  Month-on-month growth was 0.04% in April, below the seasonally implied norm of about 0.08%.

  Risks

  The rise in global energy prices from April to May may be reflected through electricity tariffs starting from July 2026.

• Information and communication prices

  Drag on core CPI component

  Strengths

  Lower internet broadband service prices depressed prices in this category.

  Weaknesses

  The decline in component prices may be category-specific and does not necessarily imply broad-based disinflation.

  Comparison

  Prices in this category fell notably in April, making it one of the three reasons core CPI came in below expectations.

  Risks

  If service price fluctuations reverse, the drag on future core CPI may lessen.

Key data

• Headline CPI YoY1.8%April 2026, unchanged from March; Goldman Sachs estimated 2.0%, and the Bloomberg consensus forecast was 2.1%.
• Headline CPI MoM-0.3%April 2026, non-seasonally adjusted, reversing from a 0.5% month-on-month increase in March to a decline.
• Core CPI YoY1.4%April 2026, below March's 1.7%; Goldman Sachs estimated 1.7%, and the Bloomberg consensus forecast was 1.8%.
• Core CPI MoM0.2%April 2026, non-seasonally adjusted, above the 0.1% month-on-month increase in March.
• Base effect impactapproximately -45bpGoldman Sachs estimates that base effects created a drag of about 45bp on the core CPI year-on-year reading.
• Housing and utility prices MoM0.04%April 2026, non-seasonally adjusted, below the seasonally implied norm of about 0.08%.
• Regulated electricity tariff pass-through timingstarting from July 2026Higher global energy prices from April to May are expected to be reflected in regulated electricity tariffs in the third quarter of 2026.

Impact & implications

Core inflation came in below expectations in April, supporting the near-term view that price pressures in Singapore remain mild and possibly reducing market concerns about an immediate reacceleration in inflation. However, the report also notes that the pass-through from rising global energy prices to regulated electricity tariffs is lagged, meaning electricity prices could become a key inflation watchpoint starting in the third quarter.

Risks

• Rising global energy prices may pass through with a lag via the regulated electricity tariff mechanism in the third quarter of 2026.
• Part of the core CPI undershoot was driven by base effects, and subsequent year-on-year readings may fluctuate as the base changes.
• Price movements in categories such as public transport, housing and utilities, and information and communications are driven by category-specific factors and may not indicate simultaneous broad weakness across all service prices.
• This report is a macro data commentary and does not provide individual stock investment ratings or target prices, so it cannot substitute for specific asset allocation advice.

What to watch

• Whether regulated electricity tariffs will be raised starting in the third quarter of 2026 from July.
• Whether core CPI month-on-month momentum will continue to remain mild.
• Whether housing and utility prices will revert from below seasonal norms.
• Whether public transport service prices will catch up amid higher fuel prices.
• Whether declines in internet broadband service prices will continue to drag on the information and communications category.