Automotive supply chains are not de-globalizing, but being restructured through regionalization and complexity

Overview

The report examines the evolution of global automotive supply chains under electrification, geopolitical pressures, and tariff shocks. The core view is that automotive trade is changing its flows and organization rather than contracting significantly: final assembly is becoming more regionalized, while parts, batteries, and high-value critical components still depend on cross-border sourcing. As a result, supply chains are becoming more complex, creating sustained demand for ocean shipping, air freight, freight forwarding, and specialized battery and reverse logistics services.

Core views

The EU remains a global automotive export hub, and even after excluding intra-EU trade, its global share remains the highest. U.S. tariffs are prompting stronger intra-North American trade and domestic assembly, but have not achieved full reshoring; supply sources are shifting more from China to Mexico and other parts of Asia. Ocean shipping continues to handle large-scale transport of finished vehicles, batteries, and standard parts, while air freight serves high-value, time-sensitive critical components and alleviates shortages in just-in-time production systems. Battery handling, critical components, and circular supply chain requirements brought by electrification will increase the unit value of specialized logistics services. From an investment perspective, freight forwarders are the clearest beneficiaries, with DSV the report’s top pick.

Analysis framework

The report combines global and regional automotive trade shares, U.S. import and export flows, trade deficits, ocean and air freight volumes and value density, and automotive parts and battery import structures, then maps these industry indicators to the revenue and gross profit exposure of freight forwarding, express delivery, and shipping companies to assess the investment impact of supply chain changes.

Methodology notes

• Trade structure analysisRegional trade flow and share analysis

  Assess the degree of supply chain regionalization through export shares, import sources, and intra-trade-bloc flows.

  The report compares the automotive trade positions of the EU, USMCA, China, Japan, and other parts of Asia, and excludes intra-EU trade to avoid overestimating cross-regional logistics opportunities.

• Supply chain analysisAnalysis of transport mode division of labor

  Differentiate ocean shipping and air freight demand based on cargo scale, value density, time sensitivity, and reliability requirements.

  Ocean shipping is suitable for predictable, less urgent, high-volume cargo; air freight mainly carries high-value, time-sensitive critical components and supports just-in-time production when shortages or production bottlenecks occur.

• Industry chain mappingLogistics profit pool exposure analysis

  Map automotive supply chain complexity and transport demand to logistics companies’ revenue, gross profit, and competitive advantages.

  The report uses the share of automotive business in DHL Express revenue and DSV gross profit to assess the contribution and risks of the automotive industry to different logistics business models.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• DSV

  Automotive is its fourth-largest industry vertical, contributing about 10% of gross profit, and the report lists it as the top pick in European logistics.

  Strengths

  Strong freight forwarding capabilities, able to handle multi-tier, highly complex, and high-unit-gross-profit automotive supply chain business.

  Weaknesses

  Regionalization of automotive production may reduce some cross-regional transport volumes.

  Comparison

  Compared with express delivery and shipping companies, freight forwarders benefit more directly from increasing supply chain complexity.

  Risks

  Weakening global automotive production, greater-than-expected regionalization, or customer price pressure may limit business growth.

• DHL Group

  About 5% to 10% of DHL Express revenue comes from the automotive industry, and it is expanding into high-voltage batteries and manufacturing inbound logistics.

  Strengths

  Integrated network and time-definite capabilities are well suited to critical parts, high-voltage batteries, and emergency transport.

  Weaknesses

  Electric vehicles require fewer parts, which may weaken some traditional express delivery demand.

  Comparison

  Its time-definite transport advantage is notable, but the degree of structural benefit may be lower than for freight forwarders.

  Risks

  Electrification leads to declining traditional parts flows, and demand for high-cost air freight may be affected by the macro cycle.

• Freight forwarders

  Multi-tier global sourcing and high-value component transport increase demand for specialized coordination and supply chain solutions.

  Strengths

  Rising supply chain complexity is favorable for increasing unit gross profit and the value of specialized services.

  Weaknesses

  Regionalization of final assembly may reduce some long-distance transport volumes.

  Comparison

  The report views the investment impact as positive, better than for express delivery and shipping sectors.

  Risks

  Declining trade volumes, supply chain simplification, or large-scale localization would weaken cargo volumes.

• Shipping companies

  Ocean shipping continues to handle large-scale intercontinental transport of finished vehicles, batteries, and standard parts.

  Strengths

  Low cost and large capacity make it the foundational transport mode for automotive supply chains.

  Weaknesses

  Specialized service added value is lower than for freight forwarding, and regionalization may shorten some routes.

  Comparison

  The report judges the overall impact on shipping stocks to be neutral.

  Risks

  Trade barriers, declining imports, and regional production substitution may reduce transport demand.

Key data

• Automotive industry share of global manufactured goods tradeAbout 11%In 2025, including about 6% from finished vehicles, about 3% from parts and accessories, and about 1% from engines.
• EU automotive product exportsAbout USD 0.9 trillionIn 2025, accounted for more than 40% of global automotive product exports, but about 62% was intra-EU trade.
• Export share excluding intra-EU tradeAutomotive products about 27%, finished vehicles about 29%After adjustment, the EU remains the world’s largest automotive export region.
• U.S. automotive trade deficitAbout USD 186 billion in 2025Lower than about USD 223 billion in 2024, but still significantly above pre-pandemic levels.
• Share of U.S. automotive exports going to Canada and MexicoAbout 56%Canada accounts for about 36% and Mexico about 20%, reflecting regionalization of North American exports.
• U.S. automotive parts import volumeAbout 3.5 million tonnes in 2010, over 5 million tonnes in 2025Parts production remains highly dispersed, with no full reshoring to the United States.
• U.S. battery import volumeAbout 250,000 tonnes in 2010, over 2.1 million tonnes in 2025About 75% of battery trade is related to the automotive industry, and almost all of it moves by ocean shipping.
• Sources of U.S. battery importsChina 50%, Japan and South Korea combined 23%, EU 7%In 2025, Asian manufacturers continue to dominate the lithium-ion battery supply chain.
• Value density of automotive air freight exportsOver USD 45/kg in 2025Higher than about USD 20 to 30/kg in the early 2010s; ocean shipping is about USD 8 to 13/kg.
• Logistics companies’ automotive business exposureDHL Express revenue about 5% to 10%; DSV gross profit about 10%Automotive is DSV’s fourth-largest industry vertical.

Impact & implications

Supply chain regionalization may reduce some long-distance transport volumes, but it will not eliminate global logistics demand. Dispersed parts sourcing, battery transport, expedited replenishment of critical components, and reverse logistics will increase supply chain management difficulty and the unit value of services. Freight forwarders with network scale, specialized personnel, and complex solution capabilities are best positioned to improve unit gross profit; express delivery companies can still benefit from emergency transport, but the reduced number of EV parts creates pressure; ocean shipping continues to handle the main scale flows, with the overall impact relatively neutral.

Risks

• Further escalation of tariffs and industrial policies leading to a sustained contraction in global automotive trade volumes.
• Production reshoring or regionalization exceeding expectations, reducing demand for long-distance ocean shipping and air freight.
• Declines in global automotive demand, production, or capital expenditure, weakening logistics companies’ cargo volumes and pricing power.
• Electric vehicles have fewer parts than internal combustion engine vehicles, creating structural pressure on traditional express delivery and parts transport.
• The relatively high share of intra-EU trade and shorter transport distances limit the addressable market for high-value-added logistics services.
• Battery safety regulation, dangerous goods handling, and reverse logistics requirements raise operating costs and compliance risks.
• High concentration of battery supply in Asia may cause supply disruptions due to geopolitical conflict or trade restrictions.

What to watch

• Changes in import volumes, trade deficits, and domestic capacity investment after implementation of U.S. automotive tariffs.
• Whether automotive parts sourcing continues to shift from China to Mexico and other parts of Asia.
• Changes in Canada’s and Mexico’s shares of U.S. automotive imports and exports.
• U.S. battery import volumes and the market shares of Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean suppliers.
• Whether the value density of automotive air freight and demand for emergency transport can continue to rise.
• DSV’s automotive gross profit contribution and wins in complex supply chain projects.
• DHL’s progress in high-voltage batteries, inbound manufacturing logistics, and new energy customer business.
• European automotive competitiveness, energy costs, and the pace at which the EU shifts from net exporter to net importer.