NAND Spot Prices Lead Gains, Global Memory Supercycle Expected to Extend into 2027

Overview

The report updates forecasts for global DRAM and NAND supply and demand, pricing, revenue, and capital expenditure. BofA believes that although industry revenue is expected to grow nearly fourfold in 2026, structural demand from AI servers, HBM, and enterprise SSDs may still drive the supercycle to continue into 2027. The recent rebound in NAND spot prices is particularly notable, while DRAM also continues to rise, indicating that legacy memory supply tightness is greater than normal seasonality. The report also analyzes potential shareholder returns at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and provides differentiated views on Korean semiconductor equipment and OLED materials companies.

Core views

First, the NAND spot rebound is driven by second-tier and white-label system makers building inventory for September and the fourth-quarter peak season, with 512Gb to 1Tb products up 5% to 6% WoW and 256Gb products up more than 10% WoW. Second, DRAM spot prices rose 1% to 2% WoW, and rising industry prices are jointly confirmed by sales and export data, indicating a strong cycle. Third, DRAM and NAND revenue growth in 2026 will mainly come from ASP rather than purely shipment expansion, and full-year average ASP in 2027 is still expected to be higher than in 2026. Fourth, 2028 is expected to see a healthy correction rather than a hard landing, with DRAM and NAND ASP assumed to decline by 8% and 14%, respectively. Fifth, at the stock level, the report favors Duksan Neolux for its OLED materials and growth themes, while taking a cautious investment view on Wonik IPS due to competition and earnings downgrades.

Analysis framework

The report combines a top-down global memory supply-demand model with bottom-up quarterly performance analysis of major manufacturers, tracking DRAM and NAND revenue, ASP, bit shipments, wafer capacity, and capital expenditure, and uses BofA memory indicators, Korean exports, manufacturer sales, and spot prices to verify the cycle position. Company valuation uses the 2027E P/E methodology.

Methodology notes

• Industry ForecastingTop-down global memory model

  Forecast DRAM and NAND industry revenue through end-demand, bit growth, ASP, wafer capacity, and capital expenditure.

  The model covers quarterly and annual supply-demand changes, and updates 2026 to 2028 forecasts based on guidance from manufacturers such as SK Hynix and Kioxia and fourth-quarter price adjustments.

• Company ComparisonBottom-up analysis of major manufacturers

  Compare sales, ASP, shipments, and margins of major DRAM and NAND manufacturers.

  DRAM analysis focuses on high margins brought by HBM, while NAND analysis focuses on product mix contributions from enterprise SSDs and 3D NAND.

• Cycle MonitoringBofA memory indicator

  Assess the position of the memory cycle by integrating global sales, ASP, spot prices, billings, Korean exports, and other data.

  The indicator was 183 in June 2026, significantly above the mid-cycle and upcycle reference levels of 100 and 130. Because the current round of price and sales increases is unprecedented, the upper bound of the indicator has been raised from about 140 to 240. January 1991 to March 2021 is the backtesting period, with actual observed data thereafter; this indicator does not constitute an investment benchmark.

• Valuation methodsForward P/E target price methodology

  Apply a target P/E multiple to expected 2027 earnings per share.

  Wonik IPS's target price uses 22x 2027E P/E, with EPS and valuation multiple lowered due to slowing revenue growth; Duksan Neolux's target price uses 21x 2027E P/E.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global DRAM industry

  Core beneficiary industry

  Strengths

  AI servers, higher HBM capacity, tight legacy DRAM supply, and rapid ASP increases jointly support revenue and margins.

  Weaknesses

  High prices may suppress PC and smartphone demand, while capital expenditure growth may also gradually increase supply.

  Comparison

  Compared with NAND, DRAM spot gains were more moderate this week, but structural demand and margins driven by HBM are stronger.

  Risks

  Prices may stabilize or correct mildly in 2027, and DRAM ASP is expected to decline by 8% in 2028.

• Global NAND industry

  Core beneficiary industry

  Strengths

  The spot price rebound is stronger than DRAM, while data centers, AI applications, and enterprise SSDs have become major demand pillars.

  Weaknesses

  Part of the price increase may come from concentrated inventory build ahead of the peak season, and sustainability still needs to be verified by order and inventory data.

  Comparison

  This week, 512Gb to 1Tb products rose 5% to 6%, while legacy 256Gb products rose more than 10%, with short-term price momentum leading DRAM.

  Risks

  NAND ASP is expected to decline by 14% in 2028; if supply expands faster than demand, price adjustments may occur earlier.

• Samsung Electronics

  Beneficiary of memory cycle and shareholder returns

  Strengths

  HBM growth and margin improvement in 2026 may be stronger than SK Hynix, and the company has the cash capacity to implement special dividends and share buybacks.

  Weaknesses

  HBM ramp-up timing is later than SK Hynix, and special employee bonuses may require more than ₩30tn of treasury shares.

  Comparison

  SK Hynix built a higher HBM base in 2024 to 2025, while Samsung Electronics has greater YoY improvement potential in 2026.

  Risks

  The scale and timing of capital returns and progress in HBM mass production may fall short of expectations.

• SK Hynix

  Beneficiary of HBM and DRAM cycle

  Strengths

  Leading ramp-up of 12-layer HBM, with the HBM product mix supporting high margins, and the company may use about 50% of free cash flow for shareholder returns.

  Weaknesses

  The high base from 2024 to 2025 limits YoY growth in 2026, and second-quarter DRAM ASP gains were lower than peers.

  Comparison

  Recent DRAM ASP performance was weaker than peers, but it is expected to recover rapidly by about 25% in the third quarter, with HBM4 shipments also increasing.

  Risks

  Intensifying HBM competition, ASP recovery falling short of expectations, and changes to capital return plans.

• Duksan Neolux (213420 KS)

  Recommended stock

  Strengths

  OLED materials and turbomachinery businesses are performing steadily, second-quarter results were positive, and the company has growth themes.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation depends on delivery of 2027 earnings, and the business remains affected by display panel and end-demand cycles.

  Comparison

  Compared with Wonik IPS, earnings trends and growth visibility are better.

  Risks

  OLED materials demand, customer orders, or 2027 earnings may fall short of expectations.

• Wonik IPS (240810 KS)

  Cautious stock

  Strengths

  Still has potential beneficiary attributes from the Korean semiconductor capital expenditure cycle.

  Weaknesses

  Second-quarter CVD sales were affected by U.S. and Japanese competitors, earnings missed expectations, and 2027 EPS forecasts were lowered by 10%.

  Comparison

  Compared with Duksan Neolux, near-term fundamentals and earnings revision trends are weaker.

  Risks

  Continued market share loss, slowing revenue growth, and further downward adjustment to valuation multiples.

Key data

• 2026 global DRAM revenue growthUp 328% YoYMainly driven by a 242% YoY increase in DRAM ASP.
• 2026 global NAND revenue growthUp 341% YoYMainly driven by a 267% YoY increase in NAND ASP.
• Global DRAM industry revenue forecast2025 US$133.8bn; 2026 US$572.9bn; 2027 US$846.5bn; 2028 US$917.2bn2027 to 2028 forecasts raised by about 2% from prior estimates.
• Global NAND revenue forecast adjustmentRaised by 10% to 15% for 2026 to 2028Reflects recent price increases and ASP expectations of about US$9 to 10 per 256Gb equivalent product.
• Weekly NAND spot performance1Tb up 6%; 512Gb up 5%; 256Gb up 16%Legacy 256Gb products posted the most notable gains, indicating peak-season inventory build and supply tightness.
• DRAM spot prices16Gb DDR5 at US$51.3; 16Gb DDR4 at US$86.7; 8Gb DDR4 at US$42.1Corresponding YoY increases are 733%, 911%, and 744%, respectively.
• BofA memory indicator183June 2026 data, near historical highs; April and May were 189 and 186, respectively.
• Nanya Tech July salesNT$44bnUp 49% MoM and 720% YoY.
• Korean semiconductor exportsUS$42bnDown 9% MoM, but up 179% YoY.
• 2026 to 2027 HBM market sizeUS$77bn/US$153bnAI accelerator upgrades and higher memory capacity per system drive market expansion.
• Wonik IPS target price₩85,000Lowered from ₩95,000, with rating maintained at Underperform.
• Duksan Neolux target price₩70,000Target price unchanged, with rating maintained at Buy.

Impact & implications

Significant upward revisions to memory pricing and revenue growth are positive for leading manufacturers with HBM, advanced DRAM, enterprise SSDs, and high-end NAND product portfolios, and may also drive demand for related materials and equipment. However, tight supply and rising memory costs could pressure margins for smartphone and PC makers and lead to downward revisions to end-device production in 2026 to 2027. If Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix implement large-scale buybacks and dividends, shareholder returns and valuation support for Korean memory leaders will be further strengthened.

Risks

• Spot price increases may mainly come from pre-peak-season rush orders; if end demand fails to absorb them, price momentum may weaken rapidly.
• Memory shortages and high materials costs in 2026 to 2027 may lead to production cuts for smartphones and PCs.
• Accelerated expansion of industry capital expenditure and wafer capacity may create supply pressure later.
• DRAM and NAND ASP are expected to decline by 8% and 14%, respectively, in 2028, and industry revenue and margins may enter a correction.
• HBM4 mass production, certification, or yield progress falling short of expectations may weaken the earnings contribution from AI demand.
• Buyback and dividend plans from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may fall short of market expectations in scale or timing.
• Part of the historical data in the BofA memory indicator comes from backtesting, and the indicator's upper bound has been adjusted due to abnormal market conditions, so it should not be regarded as an investable benchmark.
• The research institution may have business relationships with covered issuers, and the report's objectivity may be affected by potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether Kioxia's third-quarter revenue can grow about 35% QoQ, and whether NAND ASP can achieve a gain close to 20%.
• Whether industry average prices for DRAM and NAND can rise 8% and 3% QoQ, respectively, in the fourth quarter.
• Whether the NAND spot rebound can spread from second-tier and white-label customers to major brand customers and the contract market.
• SK Hynix's third-quarter DRAM ASP recovery and HBM4 shipment progress.
• Official announcements on Samsung Electronics' buybacks, special dividends, year-end dividends, and employee treasury share arrangements.
• Subsequent changes in Korean semiconductor exports, Nanya Tech sales, and the BofA memory indicator.
• Changes in the share of AI servers, HBM, and enterprise SSDs in DRAM and NAND demand.
• Wonik IPS's CVD orders, competitive landscape, and earnings revisions, as well as Duksan Neolux's realization of OLED materials growth.