China weekly NEV orders declined, but signs of improving year-over-year retail sales are emerging

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' Week 30 2026 weekly chartbook tracking of China's NEV passenger vehicle market, covering orders for key brands, CPCA passenger vehicle and NEV retail/wholesale trends, dealer end discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The core message is that the post-launch order pulse for new models has faded, leading to sequential and year-over-year declines in weekly orders for key automakers, while the industry's retail year-over-year decline continued to narrow and NEV penetration remained high.

Core views

The report believes short-term order momentum has retreated from the initial peak following new model launches, with total orders for key NEV makers in Week 30 down 26% week-over-week and 31% year-over-year. At the brand level, Geely, BYD, and Leapmotor were relatively resilient sequentially at +0.1%, -0.2%, and -4.3%, respectively. In year-to-date orders, Nio, HIMA, and XPeng were relatively defensive year-over-year at +91%, +26%, and +0%, respectively. At the industry level, CPCA data show the year-over-year decline in NEV retail sales narrowed from July 1 to 19, leading the report to judge that NEV retail sales turned positive year-over-year during July 13 to 19.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a weekly high-frequency tracking framework, observing key NEV brand orders, CPCA retail and wholesale data, dealer end discounts, and battery and battery raw material prices within a single chart package. Order data are used to gauge demand intensity and the pulse effect of new model launches, CPCA data are used to verify industry sales trends, end discounts are used to track the intensity of price competition, and upstream prices are used to assess the battery cost environment.

Methodology notes

• Industry High-Frequency TrackingWeekly Order Tracking for Key NEV Brands

  Week-over-week and year-over-year changes in weekly orders

  Identify short-term demand momentum, the impact of model launches, and relative brand strength through changes in weekly orders of major NEV brands.

• Industry Sales VerificationCPCA Passenger Vehicle and NEV Retail/Wholesale Tracking

  Retail, wholesale, and NEV penetration

  Use phased CPCA data to observe passenger vehicle and NEV industry sales trends, and compare year-over-year, month-over-month, and NEV penetration changes.

• Price Competition TrackingDealer Discount Tracking

  MSRP discount rate

  Assess end-market promotional intensity and the state of price competition through average dealer discounts versus MSRP for NEVs and ICE vehicles.

• Cost Chain TrackingBattery and Battery Raw Material Price Tracking

  Lithium carbonate and cell prices

  Track marginal changes in upstream costs through price changes in battery-grade lithium carbonate, prismatic LFP cells, and prismatic NCM cells.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China NEV OEMs

  Directly related

  Strengths

  High NEV penetration, year-to-date orders for some brands remain resilient, and XPeng Mona L03 is still receiving new orders.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly orders for key automakers declined significantly both sequentially and year-over-year, showing demand retreat after the launch pulse of new models.

  Comparison

  Geely, BYD, and Leapmotor were relatively resilient week-over-week; Nio, HIMA, and XPeng were relatively defensive year-to-date year-over-year.

  Risks

  New model orders decay faster than expected, end-market price competition intensifies again, and monthly sales releases come in below expectations.

• Power battery and materials chain

  Indirectly related

  Strengths

  Prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices are stable, and falling lithium carbonate prices may ease cost pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Falling upstream prices may also reflect weaker supply-demand conditions or bargaining pressure in the industry.

  Comparison

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 2.3% week-over-week, while prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were stable week-over-week.

  Risks

  Raw material price volatility, automaker price cuts passing through to the battery chain, and weaker-than-expected demand recovery.

• Traditional ICE vehicles and dealer channels

  Comparative relevance

  Strengths

  ICE discounts remain high, which may support short-term destocking or stable sales.

  Weaknesses

  ICE discounts are significantly higher than those for NEVs, showing that competitive pressure remains high in the traditional ICE end market.

  Comparison

  As of July 26, average ICE discount was 19.66% versus 6.94% for NEVs.

  Risks

  ICE demand continues to be displaced by NEVs, putting pressure on dealer profit margins.

Key data

• Total orders for key NEV makers in Week 30-26% week-over-week, -31% year-over-yearThe report says orders retreated after the initial launch pulse from models such as the XPeng Mona L03 and Li Auto L6 facelift.
• XPeng Mona L03 non-refundable orders in Week 3011.5k unitsWeek 29 was 53.5k units.
• Passenger vehicle retail sales from July 1 to 19770k units, -16% year-over-year, -4% month-over-monthSource: CPCA weekly trend.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale sales from July 1 to 19747k units, -17% year-over-year, -14% month-over-monthSource: CPCA weekly trend.
• NEV retail sales from July 1 to 19485k units, -4% year-over-year, -6% month-over-monthThe year-over-year decline narrowed from -8% during July 1 to 12.
• NEV wholesale sales from July 1 to 19509k units, +5% year-over-year, -14% month-over-monthNEV wholesale sales remained in positive year-over-year growth.
• NEV penetration rateRetail 63.0%, wholesale 68.1%Compared with 62.8% and 63.4% in June.
• Average dealer discount for NEVs6.94%As of July 26, flat versus 6.94% on July 18, and below 8.13% on July 28, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for BYD3.95%As of July 26, below 4.10% on July 18 and 5.45% on July 28, 2025.
• Average dealer discount for ICE vehicles19.66%As of July 26, compared with 19.95% on July 18 and 21.37% on July 28, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb149.5k/ton, -2.3% week-over-weekPrismatic LFP and prismatic NCM cell prices were stable week-over-week.

Impact & implications

For investment judgment, the report presents a situation where short-term cooling in demand coexists with marginal improvement in industry retail sales. The decline in orders for key automakers suggests that enthusiasm for new models may normalize quickly after the initial launch period; however, improving year-over-year NEV retail sales and high penetration indicate that the industry's structural penetration trend remains resilient. Stable NEV discounts help ease concerns about a worsening price war, while falling upstream lithium carbonate prices may improve the cost environment for batteries and vehicle makers.

Risks

• Orders for key automakers have fallen sharply after the new model launch pulse, potentially signaling insufficient short-term demand momentum.
• The year-over-year improvement in NEV industry retail sales still requires verification from subsequent full monthly data.
• If price competition intensifies again, it may compress margins for automakers and distribution channels.
• If the decline in battery material prices is driven by weak demand, it may pressure revenue and earnings expectations across the supply chain.
• Recognition quality for some tables in the report is limited, and detailed brand-level order figures should be based on the original charts.

What to watch

• Jul 28: Zeekr 9X five-seater launch.
• Jul 30: Xiaomi SkyNomad technology event.
• Aug 1: Monthly sales releases from NEV makers.
• Aug 8: Avatr 07 L launch.
• Aug 10-11: CPCA releases passenger vehicle/NEV industry and model-level wholesale and retail data.
• Aug 13: BYD Qin Max launch.
• Sep 1: Monthly sales releases from NEV makers.
• Sep: Li Auto i9 launch.